All this talk of trying to predict the market got me thinking about my former next door neighbor’s experience. I think a lot of people oversimplify the idea that you can sell your house, move to an apartment for a couple months, and then jump right back into the market and make a killing.

My former next door neighbors were a young couple who had been in their house for about a year. They realized they could sell for about $100k over what they bought for. This was spring of 2021. Currently, even though prices have gone down a bit, they’re still at ~$200k over where they sold their house.

Unless prices plummet over the next year (which is possible), they basically priced themselves out of a house for the foreseeable future. Prices and rates have both gone way up since they sold. Ouch.

It might end up working out for them in the end, but as of right now, it’s looking like an absolutely awful decision.

This is in the Dallas area, btw.