Why?

The first reason is that there are multiple networks that want college football content. It appears like Fox is trying to get an exclusive deal with the B1G or at least share it with NBC who has extra cash now its NHL deal is gone.

That leaves CBS (and maybe NBC if Fox gets the B1G exclusively). ESPN may get in on everyone, but suffice to say the trend seems to be towards exclusivity and some networks will lose spots they need to make up elsewhere. In other words there is too much demand to be satisfied by just two players (ESPN and Fox).

The second reason is dilution. If the SEC and B1G expect to pay out over $100 per school eventually (and possibly higher if bidding wars ensue), then additional expansion picks need to generate that much value or else it creates several opportunity costs. It may not be optimal to grab a whole bunch of tweeners if it inhibits existing schools from maximizing their cash payout. For example, the B1G won’t take additional teams if the projected payout for the 16 planned teams goes from $100 million per year down to $90 billion by adding a few more schools. Also, the bigger the conference gets the value of individual matchups decreases. The network may have more inventory but the quality of it (and thus the overall value) decreases because you will have less Wisconsin vs Ohio State matchups and more UCLA vs Rutgers type matchups. If you don’t believe this, look at what has happened to the overall value of the ACC since it bloated from 8 to 14 schools over the past 20 years.

The aforementioned leads to the third reason. Too many decent brands like VT, Pitt, Louisville, NCST, ASU, etc may be left out. If Oregon and Washington are tweeners for the B1G, Miami might be for the SEC. This creates a paradox because it leaves money on the table yet gets left out because of the Law of Diminishing Returns. As long as there is competition for content being pitted against revenue optimization there is a market opportunity that can be exploited and will be. Will it get $100 million per year? No. But if it can drive $60-80 million per year for each school it is still valuable and can provide sufficient resources to compete. In some instances NIL may even close the gap. Politics and anti trust/competition factors will limit the B1G and SEC from breaking off if there are enough schools getting hurt or left out that could still be competitive.

There will be some casualties no doubt, and it will likely by the G5 schools and P5 schools like OSU, WSU, BC, Duke, WF, etc. However, there are enough factors to create a niche for a distinct 3rd power conference that can compete with the other 2 even if it has fewer resources. It is not ideal, but the space exists and it is too big to be ignored. Just pray that it doesn’t get ignored and BYU can land in it.