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Aug 19, 2022
10:17
:36
am
krindorr
Truly Addicted User
I have a fair amount of respect for Sagarin rankings...but no clue how he assigns preseason ranks. Any insights?
Can't be based on how teams played yet or who won/lost and how close they were.
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krindorr
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krindorr
Joined
Oct 5, 2020
Last login
Mar 29, 2024
Total posts
17,689 (106 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41
The Toolman
8/19/22 10:01am
They finished 33rd last year
Indy Coug
8/19/22 10:02am
Fair and lots of opportunity for big wins early
The Toolman
8/19/22 10:03am
I wonder what formula he uses to calculate his anti-BYU bias into the rankings
2FarGone
8/19/22 10:03am
he took the bowl game performance and gave it a 90% weight in his formula
BYUMizzou
8/19/22 10:07am
He put Cincy at 31.. lol
byukarl
8/19/22 10:13am
8th among the new B12, lower than even KSU 🙁
Marc Spector
8/19/22 10:04am
Has Washington at 21? LOL... ok
Coug
8/19/22 10:13am
A lot of people think Sagarin is the most accurate predictor in the aggregate.
Abe Froman
8/19/22 10:15am
It generally takes several games into the season before Sagarin becomes reliable
ptcougr
8/19/22 10:20am
any system*
molodyets
8/19/22 10:27am
Sure, but that doesn’t address my question.
Abe Froman
8/19/22 11:49am
Here you can see which systems predicted accurately the most:
molodyets
8/19/22 10:28am
Seems like the Massey composite is about as good as anything else out there.
cougarfan84
8/19/22 10:43am
makes sense - the Massey composite averages like 80 other rankings to produce
cwilke1
8/19/22 10:51am
It's remarkable that the most brilliant, objective mathematical analysis we have
shoganai
8/19/22 12:04pm
That’s not a shocker, the people setting the spread are not dumb and they use just as much data. This is more telling
molodyets
8/19/22 12:50pm
I'm shocked Sagarin isn't higher on this list.
slatecoug
8/19/22 12:21pm
I have a fair amount of respect for Sagarin rankings...but no clue how he assigns preseason ranks. Any insights?
krindorr
8/19/22 10:17am
Washington at 21 is funny though and shows a huge flaw
Turnpike Lane
8/19/22 10:19am
Washington will be much better than last year - hired a great coach
Taccoug
8/19/22 4:47pm
any formula that still gives good weight to past seasons more than 2 years in
cwilke1
8/19/22 10:21am
Cincinnati at 31? Are you kidding me?
byukarl
8/19/22 10:25am
Okay - come up with a formula that has no outliers and accurately ranks almost 300 teams that each play 12
molodyets
8/19/22 10:30am
Are you arguing that Cincinnati should be higher ranked? That 31 is unfair to
cwilke1
8/19/22 10:33am
all of them do. Usually 4-5 years back because that is what makes them the most accurate.
molodyets
8/19/22 10:29am
Predicted 6-6 finish with no P5 wins
BYU Fan
8/19/22 10:53am
RE: Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41
imdocrob
8/19/22 11:04am
Or maybe the computers actually show that
I'mBatman
8/19/22 12:34pm
RE: Or maybe the computers actually show that
imdocrob
8/19/22 1:44pm
In fairness, it depends on what factors he uses to assess whether a team is 'better' or not
krindorr
8/19/22 1:51pm
RE: In fairness, it depends on what factors he uses to assess whether a team is
imdocrob
8/19/22 2:05pm
That's kind of the point, Connelly has his returning talent rankings. Sagarin prob doesn't use Connelly's ranks in his
krindorr
8/19/22 2:14pm
Because it’s preseason so it leans heavily on the prior four years and that fades a the season goes on to be only
molodyets
8/19/22 2:10pm
So this is just a subjective ranking systems with the mirage of data analysis
DazeofBlue
8/19/22 11:46am
I mean...probably not just based on what he wants, probably tested against actual performance
krindorr
8/19/22 12:01pm
What?
molodyets
8/19/22 12:50pm
They measured our defensive performance last year and found it lacking
I'mBatman
8/19/22 12:30pm
RE: Sagarin not drinking the preseason Kool-Aid #41
canndyman
8/19/22 12:42pm
What about Texas then?
CoolB
8/19/22 12:49pm
Yeah... We're not Texas...
canndyman
8/19/22 5:52pm
I wonder if he factors in recruiting rankings
BYU Fan
8/19/22 1:37pm
It’s still using performances from 2018 & 2019 since it’s a preseason rating
molodyets
8/19/22 2:11pm
So what
stonecougar
8/19/22 3:59pm
Ouch! And the ranked teams we play are still ranked highly.
Boomcannon
8/19/22 4:29pm
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