terrible defense. In F/+ rankings, North Carolina rates at #14 in Offense and #109 in Defense. As such, we have to be careful not to read too much into Notre Dame's performance at Virginia on the offensive end.


As far as Notre Dame and BYU are concerned, F/+ rates them as follows:

Notre Dame:
#37 Offense
#21 Defense
#20 Overall

BYU:
#25 Offense
#43 Defense
#39 Overall

So we have the #37 Offense against the #43 Defense which seems like close to a wash with a small advantage to Notre Dame. We also have the #25 Offense against the #21 Defense which is also a wash with an even smaller advantage to Notre Dame. Overall F/+ would project Notre Dame to win, but not by a very large scoring margin. It will be a tough game for BYU, but one they definitely have a shot at winning if they bring their "A" game.

Also, note that F/+ is a hybrid of FEI and SP+ and that SP+ has both teams rated a lot closer together (#30 ND v. #39 BYU) than FEI does (#14 ND v. #42 BYU).

Looking at SP+ alone, BYU is #35 Offense, #44 Defense, #110 Special Teams (!!!), #39 Overall; Notre Dame is #44 Offense, #25 Defense, #16 Special Teams, and #30 overall. So BYU's Defense and Notre Dame's offense are evenly matched. BYU's offense is good, but Notre Dame's defense is very good as well.

IMO, this game will come down to:

(1) BYU not allowing Notre Dame big plays. Their Offense is not explosive and we need to keep it that way.

(2) BYU being able to establish a ground game AND take care of the football. I think BYU will have success through the air. They have all year long. The question marks come in the running game and I worry that Notre Dame will be effective in stifling it. If BYU can establish a decent running attack I like their chances in this game.

(3) Special teams - it has been a weak point all season long, and in a game that is projected to be as close as this one, a botched FG may be the difference between winning and losing the game. Hopefully our poor ST play won't bite us in the butt here.