to always end up with the best 4 teams in the semi finals. Last year, England, Belgium, Croatia and France pretty clearly had the most talented squads. Brazil would have an argument there, but those 4 were very talented squads. In 2014, it was Brazil, Germany, Argentina and the Netherlands. 2010 - Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Uruguay. You don't seem to see any Cinderellas make the semis.

This year, it's pretty clear to me that the semis will be Argentina, Brazil, Spain, and whoever wins between England and France. With a handful of French stars out with injury, I'm thinking it will likely be England. I would say those are the most talented rosters in the World Cup, so again, not really surprising. With the propensity for low scoring games leading to higher probability of ties, which then go to shootouts that can swing either way, you would think there would be more upsets. But it shows you how incredibly difficult it is to knock off one of the super talented teams.