The B1G, SEC, AND Big 12’s are increasing with inflation and live sports demand. The ACC gets $17M per school for Tier one rights and another $10-15M for the ACC network per year based on cable distribution. If cord cutting happens over the next 10 years, ACC Network revenue could go down.
This is not a matter of what’s accretive or not. It is a matter of the FMV of P5 schools going up and the ACC schools not being compensated in line with it. All the more reason for Utah to fear because if 6-8 ACC schools decided to join the Big 12 in 2032 while the remaining 6-8 got split between the ACC and SEC, there are no spots left.
It is extremely likely because of demand and inflation, the amount available in the Big 12, could be $60M in revenue per year per school in the next TV deal in 2032. No ACC team is waiting 4-5 more years to get that. Further, if streaming dominates in 7-8 years, the ACC network may not have the same value. All parties, including ESPN, may decide its best to go their separate ways.