They're probably less comfortable signing a long term deal with the Big 12. They want to be elsewhere. UW is not even remotely a cultural or academic fit with the Big 12.

Even if the payout is $10 million more...I can see them wanting to be in the more academic-oriented Pac-10 with Cal and Stanford and hold out for better offers that could make up the delta in one year.

Plus, being a flagship in the Pac-10, they can probably negotiate higher terms or have some additional bonus for making a CCG or the CFP. Kind of like the BCS bowl payout to the non-BCS participants. They take half and split the other half with the conference.

If a Pac-10 had an auto CFP berth, and I believe they will regardless bc the CFP wants the west coast included, UW or Oregon would probably be the top 2 favorites any given year.

I don't disagree with your logic but knowing what I know about university presidents, boards and administrators, it's a hard pill to swallow to jump into the Big 12. Maybe if Cal and Stanford left.

I don't think it's a tough sell to the 4 corners though. Utah and CU the main hold outs. I don't think the AZs are all that attractive by themselves. And why take both of them?

Even if the Big 12 landed UW and Oregon, I think the Big 12 would take Utah or CU, probably both ahead of Tucson. ASU already has baggage and CU hasn't done anything since leaving the Big 12. Don't forget about that bad taste.

I'd bet if it had to be 4, it's UW, Oregon, Utah and ASU.

Taking UW, Oregon and Utah would kill the P12 for good and start to rival the BIG in terms of competitiveness. It would also now guarantee an auto berth for the 4th seed bye. (By eliminating the Pac-12 potential for a bye)

They'd probably add the other 3 too anyway and create a 6-team pod in the west with Oregon, UW, Utah, BYU and the two Arizonas or a 9-team western division with the perfect round robin number. Winner plays the east for the CFP bye with both having auto berths.

Now that would be fun!