Important Caveat that these are not my thoughts, but an interesting review that I came across

I think its fair to say that all 4 newcomers to the Big 12 are not entering the league on a positive trajectory or with momentum:

• UH, who fired Major Applewhite because 8 wins was considered beneath the program standard, has only won more than 8 games once, in 2021 with one of the worst schedules in the country. Despite beating a lousy 6-7 UL team in the Independence Bowl, no doubt 2022 was a massive disappointment based on preseason expectations, with the defensive side of the ball being terrible.

• UCF also had some preseason expectations, crapped the bed against Louisville to start the year. When it looked like they had righted the ship, they were uncompetitive in a loss at East Carolina. Again, after looking like they had righted the ship again by beating Tulane and back in the NY6 driver's seat, they lost to a really bad Navy team at home, needed a comeback to beat a bad South Florida team, lost to Tulane in the AAC title game, then were uninspiring in a bowl loss to Duke.

• Cincinnati had a bad season by recent Cincinnati standards - the opening loss to Arkansas looked worse as the season went on. They were competitive in a close loss at UCF, and had a chance to go back to the NY6 before losing at home to Tulane. Then Fickell jumped ship and a shell squad looked like a shell squad in the bowl game against Louisville.

• BYU has been stuck in a spiral of mediocrity apart from the gimmick 2020 COVID season and Zach Wilson. 2022 was no different. After a win over what appeared at the time to be a top 10 Baylor team, they then proceeded to lose 3 in a row to P5 teams and then even lost back to back to Liberty and East Carolina before winning their last 4, including a close bowl win over an average SMU team. Still, 8-5 has to be considered a disappointment

So with the 2023 schedules out, what can we expect from these 4 teams?

• UH still has Holgersen, who has for the most part been a massive disappointment. They also lose Clayton Tune and Tank Dell. The defense, one of the worst in the country last year, will have to get better, but will it get better in time? The Big 12 schedule is tough for UH after a layup non conference.

• UCF also has been a disappointment under Guz Malzahn, who has put together two mediocre(by UCF standards) seasons at the helm. 9 wins might be mediocre in the AAC by UCF standards, but I am sure they would be thrilled with 9 wins in the Big 12. QB Plumlee is back, but can he pass the ball? The schedule isn't too bad for UCF, with all 4 Big 12 home games winnable.

• Cincinnati had the man who brought them to the dance bail on them, and made a questionable head scratching hire to replace Fickell. Major QB question marks will be with Cincinnati. However, they have in my opinion, the most favorable schedule among the newcomers.

• BYU needs to find their way offensively, which has been holding them back. The defense hasn't been good enough the last 2 years to compensate for the bad offense. Will they improve on either side of the ball? BYU also has a tough schedule, with road games at Texas and TCU

In my opinion, these teams all have huge question marks coming into the Big 12 with not a lot of momentum, and I would be very surprised if any of them wind up in the upper echelon(Top 5) of the Big 12. I don't expect any of them to be in Big 12 title contention, and I expect at least two to miss bowl eligibility if not more.

When TCU joined the Big 12, we were very young, the 3rd youngest team in the country according to S&P, having lost most of the players who played on the back-to-back-to-back MWC title teams. However we did return an experienced QB, which is a major reason why we were ranked coming into the year, who was suspended 4 games into the season which had us throw in a freshman QB by the name of Trevone Boykin into action and lost 6 of the last 9 games. None of the new Big 12 teams in my opinion have anywhere near that upside we had joining the Big 12 so if we could only pull out 7 wins that first year, the path for the 4 newcomers will be tough.

My predictions:

• UH: 6-6 (3-6) - Wins: UTSA, at Rice, Sam Houston, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Losses: TCU, at Texas Tech, Texas, at Kansas State, at Baylor, at UCF

• UCF: 5-7 (3-6) - Wins: Kent State, Villanova, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Houston, Losses: at Boise State, at Kansas State, Baylor, at Kansas, at Oklahoma, at Cincinnati, at Texas Tech

• Cincinnati: 7-5 (5-4) Wins: Eastern Kentucky, Miami-OH, at BYU, Iowa State, Baylor, UCF, Kansas Losses: at Pitt, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State, at Houston, at West Virginia

• BYU: 3-9, (1-8) Wins: Sam Houston, Southern Utah, Iowa State, Losses: at Arkansas, at Kansas, Cincinnati, at TCU, Texas Tech, at Texas, at West Virginia, Oklahoma, at Oklahoma State

Maybe I am completely wrong but there just isn't much momentum from these teams for me to expect any of them to make an immediate statement.

from https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/10q8u3z/now_that_the_big_12_schedule_is_out_what_can_we/

 Here's a smattering of what I found in response

[a different TCU fan]

I would be surprised if any of the newcomers can beat UT/OU.

UH gets UT at home, but I just don't think UH will be able to turn their fortunes around unless UT really underachieves yet again
BYU gets both and I think they will be outclassed by both even if they play better than expectations
UCF on the road at OU will have to hope OU is still bad under Venebles, if they improve I just don't see it happening
Cincinnati gets OU at home, which is the greatest shot any of these teams have in my opinion of knocking them off.

[from a Nebraska fan]

BYU is gonna wind up the best of the 4 newcomers next year, I’ve got them in the 7 win range. I don’t have much hope at all for Cincy or Houston, and think they’ll be .500 at best next year. UCF will have the most long term success in the conference, but they’re still ~5 years out from being in CCG contention.

[from an Arizona fan]

If you’re not sure about a record prediction in the big 12, stick with 6-6.

BYU has had issues on the defense and just hired a new DC. I think they win 5-7 games this year.

[from a Utah fan - there were a couple takes along these lines, only included the one example]

The biggest factor for all of these teams is going to be depth. Utah saw this in their first couple years at the P5 level, the backstretch of the schedule is going to feel rough when you don’t have the same depth as the teams that have already been in the conference. Wait 3-4 years and then we can actually start to see what the new pecking order might look like

[from a Boise St fan]

Based on the recent histories of teams making the jump to P5 conferences, don't be surprised if any or all of them struggle in their first 2 or 3 years. That's around how long it took for TCU and Utah to adapt to their new conferences. The teams they have put together are with G5 resources and it'll take some time for them to build up even more when the P5 resources start coming in. I'm thinking most, if not all 4, are gonna be fighting more for bowl eligibility and somewhere from 4-8 to 7-5 rather than pushing for a Big 12 title.

[Posted by a BYU fan - fair number of BYU fans that responded along these lines, but only included one example]

Offense wasn’t the side of the ball that mainly held us back,it was defense. Our D has been Swiss cheese but now with Jay Hill at the helm expect the D to be much better, injuries hurt the offense with Jaren playing through injuries he should’ve sat for and others but earlier bye week could help alleviate the injury bug. I expect 6-6

[Posted by a BYU fan]

I'm saving this post so I can come back and blaze you when we win four games