but I am not convinced it will survive with all current 12 members. And I now believe there is a highly plausable scenario where ESPN will NOT be a part of the PAC's media rights package.

Arizona's President has already declared a self-imposed deadline of April 15th to have a deal that will come close to or exceed the Big12's payout. It must also be no greater than 50% streaming. If those publicly declared parameters are not met he can justify to his costituents, faculty, students, fans, peers... their next move should be to the Big12. Colorado has stayed suspiciously quiet in the last couple weeks while their 4-corner peers have made their public declarations. But National writers have declared Colorado and Arizona and the likely ones to make a move.

Ourand confirmed that even now a deal with ESPN is "not close" to a PAC deal. So what would happen if ESPN just walked away?

Arizona and Colorado likely pair up and announce their move to the Big12. ESPN acquires a PST and MST team to add to their US-West roster that already includes BYU. If those 3 are willing to play 3-4 of their home games in that late night slot that probably get's you 9-12 weeks of #Big12AfterDark. Instead of paying $100M for an entire conf to get late night games ESPN get's it for an additional $40M.

The PAC still survives. They are glued together with Oregon/WA/Stan/CAL. However, they have no choice but to move forward with an all-streaming deal with Apple. They likely get <$20M per school at that point, based on TV revenue from Apple coupled with PAC production costs. UC/UA aren't exactly high demand $$$ schools, but Apple will only pay a fraction for their replacements SDSU/SMU/CSU/Rice. Apple will also put the PAC on a premium package similar to what they did with MLS (who pay a $13/mnth surcharge) beyond just being an Apple+ subscriber.

So the PAC is exclusively on streaming, behind multiple paywalls, making $10M+ less than the Big12. And their guaranteed access to the playoffs is only guaranteed for the next 2 years.

Does ASU come begging to the Big12 at that point? Do Oregon and Washington consider negotiating with the Big12? Even if those schools stay or move, the PAC will remain intact with at least Stanford, CAL, Oregon St, Washington St, multiple G5 expansion schools... and Utah.

Conference of Champions indeed!