https://www.deseret.com/2023/3/22/23651971/experts-say-pac-12-really-could-have-used-byu-when-it-comes-to-media-rights-negotiations
Quoting Williams on SicEm 365:
“First off, we have the credibility for going out and expanding,” said Williams.
“And I don’t think he (Bowlsby) gets enough credit for that one. The money shot was BYU. And the reason the money shot was BYU is back in 2010 when the shift came, and again in 2015 and when we started getting people in, I had been involved in some of that in both times. ESPN was telling me, you know how much BYU is worth? BYU is probably the difference between $27 and $31.6 in that contract. So, BYU alone, was probably kicked into the $31.6. So you’ve seen them go from $27 to $30 to $31 million (TV deal signed last fall). So that was good on Bowlsby.”
Then Harmon calculates:
When current Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark jumped the line and negotiated a TV contract ahead of the Pac-12 last summer, the combined ESPN and Fox deal is reportedly a six-year $2.2 billion payout, or $31.6 per team per year.
If BYU brings approximately $4 million per year to that six-year deal, the value of adding BYU theoretically would be worth about $24 million.
Seriously? So he thinks that comment means that BYU added a total of $4M per year total... not the $4M per year PER SCHOOL like Williams said.
Williams has since clarified:
https://twitter.com/JWMediaDC/status/1638620916606439424
Using Williams logic with this revised figure of $2-4M per school to a deal back in 2015, let's conservatively say that's ~$3M per school today. That's $33M more total (11x$3M) plus BYU's share of $32M. So around $65M... a doubling of the actual AAV (Average Annual Value) payout.
Some say that's CRAZY WAY TOO HIGH! Maybe it's an over-estimate, but consider what the Big12 was just offered: $32M per year per school. BYU is arguably the strongest brand and fanbase in the new Big12 (Kansas, OkSt, & Texas Tech might argue). But if $32 is the AAV who is bringing up the average and how much? I'm sure there are plenty of naysayers that would say that BYU's not even worth $32M/year... "Look at their $10M per year paltry sum they got paid by ESPN as an Independent!... no way they're worth much more than that" they cry. But I would challenge anyone who says that to list out all the Big12 schools and make the math work of where they can get the $32M/year AAV from the 12 schools. Please tell us how much each school is worth if BYU is only worth $10-20M... Who's bringing up the averages?
Recall what Mandel recently said in The Athletic:
The one school the Pac-12 could have added anytime in the last 40 years that would have absolutely created value is BYU. But generation after generation of the league’s presidents made it clear they wanted nothing to do with a church-owned university that’s not a research institution, just like they’ve thumbed their nose at Boise State. Now, they’re down to the likes of San Diego State and SMU, which would help keep the roster at 12 but will not move the needle in terms of interest from media partners.
If BYU would have created value at any point in the last 40 years WITH USC/UCLA present, that means that BYU would exceed the projected $50M/year/school that the PAC was in line to get before losing USC/UCLA. So are projections of BYU being worth ~$60M+ really that far fetched?