that the odds of that event happening again in the near future suddenly go up. Maybe a 1,000-year flood event for an area won’t happen again for 4,000 years.

It’s just a matter of odds. If you flip a coin there’s only a 50% chance it will land on heads. Yet, if you flip the coin three times it might land on heads each time. That doesn’t mean that the next time you flip it there is a greater likelihood of it landing on heads than tales. The odds of getting heads is always 50%.