So, what's happening here is Mandel is really hoping that a LOT smaller and it MAY be FAIRLY flat actually means is not smaller and is flat.

So, this is more about the Pac-12 still giving rosy projections.

“At least the projections (AD) Pat Chun and I and others have seen,” said Schulz, “I’m not sure that it will be a lot larger than we saw in the past, (and) it shouldn’t be smaller than in the past. It may be fairly flat.”
Schulz did not elaborate further, but in the 2022 fiscal year, the conference reported $385.6 million in revenue — an average of $32.1 million per school — from its media rights deals with ESPN, Fox and the Pac-12 Network.
A “fairly flat” number come 2024, when the league loses USC and UCLA, would put the Pac-12 closely in line with the reported $31.7 million-per-school deal