Holy outlier, Batman!

Oct 30, 2024
8:09:58am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

How does each team’s current win total compare to preseason realistic expectations through Week 9? pic.twitter.com/G24pUf1IAp
— Kelley Ford (@KFordRatings) October 30, 2024

https://twitter.com/KFordRatings/status/1851625146357776659

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
Joined: Dec 20, 2001
Last login: Nov 16, 2024
Total posts: 189,564 (10,114 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Holy outlier, Batman!

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

Oct 30, 8:09am

Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason

CougarCanuck76

Oct 30, 8:11am

This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.

swingcat

Oct 30, 8:12am

The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far

Indy Coug

Oct 30, 8:16am

Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.

acadian8

Oct 30, 8:44am

I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.

Indy Coug

Oct 30, 8:47am

Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.

BleedCougarBlue2

Oct 30, 9:32am

It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each

Socrates Johnson

Oct 30, 9:52am

I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through

Cougar TD

Oct 30, 10:09am

Yes there is, at least for a few years. That would happen if the media and polls continue to underestimate BYU

BYU Tar Heel

Oct 30, 11:03am

If BYU makes the CFP, expectations will be much higher in 2025.

acadian8

Oct 30, 12:19pm

It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there

cougarfan84

Oct 30, 2:31pm

By analogy to another form of "football", BYU was in the College Cup last year

Archaea

Oct 30, 3:15pm

Thx Captain!!

imdocrob

Oct 31, 8:36am

Coach of the Year

Coog4Life

Oct 30, 8:15am

I see 2 outliers

yorksama

Oct 30, 8:16am

Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...

Brandoblueblood

Oct 30, 9:19am

Nice bell(-ish) curve.

Kilgore Trout

Oct 30, 8:18am

I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.

BlueKarma

Oct 30, 8:18am

Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.

cvd6262

Oct 30, 8:26am

What a great chart

cmoney

Oct 30, 8:24am

Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule

willkie40

Oct 30, 8:31am

LOL FSU!

WillsPitStop

Oct 30, 8:34am

This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…

BluesBrother

Oct 30, 8:38am

I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!

Zoobieman

Oct 30, 8:41am

So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?

thewaterboy

Oct 30, 8:49am

Florida St. LOL

Lifer

Oct 30, 8:52am

The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.

Brandoblueblood

Oct 30, 9:08am

No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of

Indy Coug

Oct 30, 9:44am

The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-

BeyondTheMark

Oct 30, 10:05am

This is such a good model and post

stansburycoug

Oct 30, 10:05am

Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.

Brandoblueblood

Oct 30, 11:08am

Why do BYU fans have such a persecution complex. These things arent perfect but

stansburycoug

Oct 30, 11:26am

The OP shows data that BYU was significantly underestimated

Brandoblueblood

Oct 30, 2:02pm

True or false - FPI uses prior year results in current season rating.

acadian8

Oct 30, 12:21pm

Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah

NYC and Japan

Oct 30, 10:13am

Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4

Zenoch

Oct 30, 9:10am

We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?

Socrates Johnson

Oct 30, 9:51am

Expectation was 4.5 wins by most systems, Vegas... You probably expected better

NYC and Japan

Oct 30, 12:14pm

yeah the expectation of improvement was obvious to me. Not to the computers I

Socrates Johnson

Oct 30, 12:48pm

Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up

krindorr

Oct 30, 10:14am

Doubters beware...

SinkingQuffa

Oct 30, 10:21am

Living in a world with an N of 1.

cb1kenobi

Oct 30, 10:47am

wow, gotta give our coaches a raise!

Hill4Heisman

Oct 30, 10:49am

I know, right? FSU is SO bad.

Dwide_Schrude

Oct 30, 10:54am

Our coaches have been so under-appreciated by our fans. The offensive staff and

Reasonable1

Oct 30, 11:06am

The takeaway from this was Utah was supposed to be 6-2, not 8-0.

Boring

Oct 30, 11:30am

Love to see Utah drop another tier or two........

GideonsTrumpet

Oct 30, 11:39am

Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)

niqmadu

Oct 30, 12:18pm

Not the best thing really. We need to change public opinion about BYU

SV72 Sale

Oct 30, 12:40pm

The team is well on the way to changing expectations.

Reasonable1

Oct 30, 2:17pm

It is the best thing really. How else would you want to change perception other

niqmadu

Oct 30, 2:24pm

The key will be to sustain it over time. Lots of teams rise up and have one or

Japan Coug

Oct 30, 3:56pm

Yes, the key will be to retain coaching talent and sustain recruiting gains.

Reasonable1

Oct 30, 4:04pm

Poor FSU, ha ha ha. And nice to see Utah 2 under already.

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