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Oct 30, 2024
9:44
:11
am
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of
Teams-seasons. The AP Poll is sentiment. The FPI, SP+, FEI, KFord are not.
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Indy Coug
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Indy Coug
Joined
Dec 20, 2001
Last login
Nov 5, 2024
Total posts
189,115 (10,088 FO)
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Messages
Author
Time
Holy outlier, Batman!
Indy Coug
Loquacious Lummox
Oct 30, 8:09am
Kalan’s agent is going to enjoy his extension negotiations this offseason
CougarCanuck76
Oct 30, 8:11am
This season has permanently destroyed my ability to moderate expectations.
swingcat
Oct 30, 8:12am
The chart is a rotated normal distribution. Just recognize that being out in the tail that far
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 8:16am
Thanks for that wet blanket analysis.
acadian8
Oct 30, 8:44am
I’m not saying BYU is going to regularly be expected to only win 4-5 games.
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 8:47am
Meh. Just enjoy this season for what it is.
BleedCougarBlue2
Oct 30, 9:32am
It's obvious the predictive model missed big time. It continues to do so each
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 9:52am
I think this is more of a BYU was better last year, but they were going through
Cougar TD
Oct 30, 10:09am
Yes there is, at least for a few years. That would happen if the media and polls continue to underestimate BYU
BYU Tar Heel
Oct 30, 11:03am
If BYU makes the CFP, expectations will be much higher in 2025.
acadian8
Oct 30, 12:19pm
It really stands that the forecast is reasonably accurate on average, but there
cougarfan84
Oct 30, 2:31pm
By analogy to another form of "football", BYU was in the College Cup last year
Archaea
Oct 30, 3:15pm
Thx Captain!!
imdocrob
Oct 31, 8:36am
Coach of the Year
Coog4Life
Oct 30, 8:15am
I see 2 outliers
yorksama
Oct 30, 8:16am
Whoever "owns" the "UU" logo there sure did a good job pumping themselves up...
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 9:19am
Nice bell(-ish) curve.
Kilgore Trout
Oct 30, 8:18am
I think they had to expand their chart just to fit us on. Oh...and FSU.
BlueKarma
Oct 30, 8:18am
Think about this: BYU is further from expectations and is FSU.
cvd6262
Oct 30, 8:26am
What a great chart
cmoney
Oct 30, 8:24am
Why is anyone surprised by Wazzu? They are playing a G5 schedule
willkie40
Oct 30, 8:31am
LOL FSU!
WillsPitStop
Oct 30, 8:34am
This is one of the most amazing graphs I ‘ve seen. It perfectly encapsulates…
BluesBrother
Oct 30, 8:38am
I can't see Florida State or BYU. . . Nevermind I had to Zoom out, A LOT!
Zoobieman
Oct 30, 8:41am
So when BYU gets to 16 wins, they'll break this chart, correct?
thewaterboy
Oct 30, 8:49am
Florida St. LOL
Lifer
Oct 30, 8:52am
The expectations were more based on "sentiment" than actual data.
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 9:08am
No, these expectations are based on data. The models have been calibrated based on historical results for 1,000s of
Indy Coug
Oct 30, 9:44am
The fact that they are so slow to ignore the new reality seems a big weakness-
BeyondTheMark
Oct 30, 10:05am
This is such a good model and post
stansburycoug
Oct 30, 10:05am
Ah, I see; I assumed it was expectations per the Big12 media days.
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 11:08am
Why do BYU fans have such a persecution complex. These things arent perfect but
stansburycoug
Oct 30, 11:26am
The OP shows data that BYU was significantly underestimated
Brandoblueblood
Oct 30, 2:02pm
True or false - FPI uses prior year results in current season rating.
acadian8
Oct 30, 12:21pm
Reasonable here is based on data: BYU expected to roughly match 2023. Utah
NYC and Japan
Oct 30, 10:13am
Interesting that 6 of BYU's opponents (AZ, UU, WY, OSU, KA, UCF) - are in the bottom 13 on this chart. We've played 4
Zenoch
Oct 30, 9:10am
We should be more surprised by our success than FSU is by their lack of it?
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 9:51am
Expectation was 4.5 wins by most systems, Vegas... You probably expected better
NYC and Japan
Oct 30, 12:14pm
yeah the expectation of improvement was obvious to me. Not to the computers I
Socrates Johnson
Oct 30, 12:48pm
Looking at where all Big 12 teams ends up
krindorr
Oct 30, 10:14am
Doubters beware...
SinkingQuffa
Oct 30, 10:21am
Living in a world with an N of 1.
cb1kenobi
Oct 30, 10:47am
wow, gotta give our coaches a raise!
Hill4Heisman
Oct 30, 10:49am
I know, right? FSU is SO bad.
Dwide_Schrude
Oct 30, 10:54am
Our coaches have been so under-appreciated by our fans. The offensive staff and
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 11:06am
The takeaway from this was Utah was supposed to be 6-2, not 8-0.
Boring
Oct 30, 11:30am
Love to see Utah drop another tier or two........
GideonsTrumpet
Oct 30, 11:39am
Dont worry, Utah will drift even lower. Maybe into the +5 (on underachievers)
niqmadu
Oct 30, 12:18pm
Not the best thing really. We need to change public opinion about BYU
SV72 Sale
Oct 30, 12:40pm
The team is well on the way to changing expectations.
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 2:17pm
It is the best thing really. How else would you want to change perception other
niqmadu
Oct 30, 2:24pm
The key will be to sustain it over time. Lots of teams rise up and have one or
Japan Coug
Oct 30, 3:56pm
Yes, the key will be to retain coaching talent and sustain recruiting gains.
Reasonable1
Oct 30, 4:04pm
Poor FSU, ha ha ha. And nice to see Utah 2 under already.
Blue for Life
Oct 30, 3:01pm
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