@Boise State and Houston will be tough games (@BSU may be favored against us).

We should beat Utah State, @Cal, and @UConn (based on our first game struggles) but those are not guaranteed wins.

Nevada, and Virginia are low probability loses, but they will beat us if we play badly (as evidenced by last year when we lost against UVA and almost lost at Nevada).

This looks like an 8-4 or 9-3 year to me. 10-2 would be a great year, but I realize many don't see it that way.