whether BYU gets into the Big 12 or any other conference.
The problem with "insiders" is that the information they get from their sources is often coupled with conclusions and inferences that really aren't true. It's like the telephone game. Once it's passed through a couple of people, "BYU has reached out to the BIG 12 for possible inclusion," becomes "BYU has an invite and we're just putting our ducks in a row," and finally "Purple monkey dishwasher."
Additionally, many insiders seem to overstate the confidence of their information. And if not the insiders, the people they tell.