Losing in first round of the tournament -out
Losing in the second round of the tournament- out
Losing to Gonzaga in the Championship-in
Losing to someone else in the Championship-out
Winning the Championship - in
The only one I think isn't sure is if BYU loses to St Mary's in the second round and St Mary loses in the championship game to Gonzaga, BYU probably has about a 20% chance of still getting in with that scenario.