close to a lock for 2 bids. Since the field expanded, there's only been one occasion when a top 10 rpi league didn't get two bids:
In 2010, #9 MVC got 1 bid. Wichita St was the second place team in the league and lost in the league final. They were 0-5 against the top 50 and 8-1 against the top 50-100 with an rpi of 52 at the time of the tournament.
From 2004-2009 there were 3 occasions where a top 10 league didn't get multiple bids and from what I can see, it's due in large part to bid stealers from teams that had no shot of getting in.
In 2005 #10 Mid-American only got one bid. #17 Big West had a bid stealer.
In 2008 #8 MVC and #10 CUSA only got one bid. #14 WCC and #15 Sun Belt stole bids.
Not sure how relevant it is, but based on this info and how the rest of BYU's #s are tracking, it'd be crazy if we didn't get in.