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Oct 13, 2015
11:59:54am
Week 7 point spreads that are noteworthy ...
I like to make picks based on point spread to test my knowledge. I am not advocating betting on any of these games. Again, I just like to examine the point spreads, to see if I know more than others.

Here are the games and lines that are interesting to me:

Purdue (+24) @ Wisconsin - In six games, Wisconsin is averaging 26.7 point per game. Not including the 58 points they scored against Miami (OH), Wisconsin is averaging 20.4 points per game. So, Wisconsin is favored by more points against Purdue than they average on the year. I get that Purdue is hot garbage right now, but they still average 25.8 points per game. Wisconsin will win, but not by 24.

Northwestern (+3) vs. Iowa - Two evenly matched teams with similar talent. Iowa is undefeated and riding high. Northwestern is coming off an embarrassing loss to Michigan and will be salty. RULE #1: ALWAYS GO WITH THE SALTY UNDERDOG AT HOME.

Texas A&M (+4) vs. Alabama - Alabama has QB problems. A&M has an improved defense. Christian Kirk will torch Eddie Jackson and I will again shed crocodile tears of sorrow that he is not playing in Tempe. Most importantly though, last year Alabama beat A&M 59-0. See what I wrote above about a salty team playing at home as an underdog.

Kansas State (+4.5) vs. Oklahoma - Another home dog. Bill Snyder is the best CFB coach in America. Bob Stoops is the most head-scratching CFB coach in America.

Michigan (-7) vs. Michigan State - Who has Michigan State beat this year? Oregon @ home. Oh, that Oregon team who let Utah score 55, let Colorado hang around in to the 4th quarter, and who just lost to Wazzu at home? Michigan State has looked pretty average so far this year. Michigan is 1-6 against MSU since 2008. Harbaugh and company are about to exorcise about a decade worth of demons against the Spartans in the Big House. Michigan will win BIG.

South Carolina (-3) vs. Vanderbilt - Remember when I said Purdue was hot garbage? Vanderbilt is hotter garbage. South Carolina will be jacked and emotional with the departure of Spurrier. They are playing at home and will roll.

Penn State (+17) @ Ohio State - RULE #2: Always take Ohio State's opponent plus the points.

Arizona (-8) @ Colorado - Arizona with Anu Solomon is a completely different team. Arizona will roll Colorado.

NOTES:

- I'm inclined to take Washington (-1.5) vs. Oregon but something is stopping me.

- I got no clue about ASU (+6.5) @ Utah. I'm inclined to take ASU (see the UCLA game), but Utah poses some serious match-up problems. I'm nervous about Utah's ability to pressure with only four D-linemen while dropping seven in coverage. I think ASU will really struggle to move the ball, especially with Demario Richard hobbled. But then again, if DJ Foster takes Richard's place in the backfield, that could be a blessing in disguise Since Foster needs a lot more touches and way more explosive.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 13, 2015 at 11:59:54am
Message modified by MormonDevil on Oct 13, 2015 at 12:09:32pm
MormonDevil
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