To be honest, my bowl projections are largely based upon my preseason expectations and I just update projected standings/records from week to week based upon how that week's results played out. It's a lot less work than if I developed new record projections every single week. Going into this season I gave BYU around a 35% chance at winning this game which is why they're now projected as having a loss. If I completely ignore those preseason expectations and isolate who I think will win this game I'd give an edge to BYU. To be consistent w/ my approach to the rest of my projections I kept this game marked as a loss for those purposes.