your speculation. Denver lost some key free agents, certain players were injured, the D wasn't nearly as good, your coach was average, and the offense was not the worst in the league.
By your standards I could say the patriots should have won last year in Denver had they not been injured and missing a running game.
I bet the Pack would have beat ATL if they hadn't had a banged up secondary, no running game, and a gimpy WR core.