#1 will not happen. Social and political issues will keep any existing conference from inviting us. Only way we land in a P5 is if there's a major shakeup that happens so fast and so hard the political opposition to BYU value system doesn't have time to block us. BUT... even in that scenario, joining AAC now makes us no less attractive. Same fan base. Same facilities. Same name recognition. But one thing no one ever seems to mention... probably a much better record.
If there's a huge shake up in 5 years... a BYU that's been winning 10/11 games per year in the AAC and who has been to an NY6 game is MUCH more interesting to a revamped P5 league than a BYU who has been steadily 7-5 and never ranked as an independent.