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Apr 22, 2014
5:11:49pm
I find this a somewhat interesting debate
One I have very little personal care about as I live in Northern Illinois and to me a game at home is more assurance that I won't be seeing it in a stadium

Some road games give me an opportunity to see the games....

So season tickets or home/away schedule complaints rarely matter that much to me. But I like data and trying to help answer questions with said data. After reading this earlier I was stuck in some online meetings that bore me so I multi-tasked and gathered more detail to the data you provided. Note - I did not expand beyond the years/criteria you previously listed with one exception. I did add in the 2015 schedule so far and I did do a separate "average" with the home teams for 2014 & 2015 with their average record for the last 10 years as their expected record.

Here are some of my findings.

		Opponent Avg Record	    BYU Home Record
ERA W L T W L
The Glory Years 5.3 6 0.2 25 2
Fast-forward 10 yr 5.8 5.8 0.2 23 7
Enter the MWC 6 6.1 0 18 11
Independence 5.3 7.1 0 16 3
5 yr of Indy 5.8 6.6 0

Number of times BYU played a team that finished in the top 25 in each of these eras
# Top 25 Finishing Teams (record against)
0 The Glory Years (0-0)
5 Fast-forward 10 years (3-2)
3 Enter the MWC (0-3)
2 Independence (1-1)

The best end of year Top 25 finish of any of the teams listed for any of those 5 year eras.
#2 Notre Dame (1993) L
#3 Miami (1990) W
#16 CSU (1994) L *
#16 Boise St (2003) L
#16 USU (2012) W
#20 Oregon St (2012) L
#21 Utah (2003) L *
#24 Fresno St (1992) W *
#24 Miss St (2000) L
#25 AFA (1991) W *

My research can be found here

Some ramblings about the numbers.

It does show a better average record for our home opponents during the 5 year MWC era chosen over what we have now in our first 3 years of Independence and even the projected 1st 5 years.

The only era that had opponents with winning records was the fast forward 10 years where they were a combined 174-173.

What things contributed to the MWC era having the 2nd best record? Was it better and more exciting opponents in conference? Was it the fact that BYU had a few of their darkest years ever in those 5 years and lost almost as many games (11) in that 5 year stretch as they have in the other 3 eras or 13 years combined (12)? Does giving away twice as many wins to your opponents at home than you normally do have anything to do with that better opponent record?

Of the 10 teams we played at home that finished a season ranked in the top 25 four of them (40%) were members of our conference at the time. As conference opponents typically take up 75% of your schedule this is may be less than expected.

Of the 10 teams we played at home that finished a season ranked in the top 25 five of them (50%) are currently in the MWC.

Were our home schedules better when we were in the MWC? I don't think so - even these defined eras that only included 5 years can't show evidence of it.

Would our home schedules be better starting this year if we were to go back to the MWC? I'm not sure but I'd rather not go because then those home games I know I can't get to will be surrounded by a lot more of the road games much closer to Provo as well and then I have very little chance to get to any games. I do like the rotating of teams. I work with people all over the country and I really enjoy the fact that it seem since independence I get opportunity to connect with new people that care about their teams and want to talk to me because their team is going to be playing my team - several times for the first time EVER.....

Do my numbers help anyone have more to say about the debate? Like I said above it really isn't my debate but was able to entertain myself by pulling the info....
BYUFam1
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BYUFam1
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4/22/14 3:15pm

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