Nebraska is traditionally strong at home. But they lost to UCLA and Iowa in Lincoln last year, plus lost to Minnesota on the road. Bo Pellini could be out in Nebraska if they have a mediocre season. Not saying that he will be fired, but it seems like he is listed on the hot seat after every season.

Boise has been good in the past but they have a new coach this year. Who knows if they will continue to play good football like they did under Peterson or not. As you said, it's not a guarantee, but it's also not a guarantee that they will be good either.

UCLA has been good the last couple years, but that could change if their coach were to leave for a different job or injuries. Michigan has been average IMO the last couple years. They could also have a new coach if they have a bad or mediocre season.

BYU could absolutely start 1-3 in 2015. They could start 4-0, 3-1 or 2-2 in 2015 also. There is really no way to know what their prospects are until at least after this season, or even after spring practice.