Only 76 days to Tipoff!

For BYU basketball enthusiasts, it is always a good time to offer reflection and speculation for the upcoming season but there is more going on this summer than ever before. Remarkable developments recently have transformed BYU's basketball team! Players and coaches have been released to spend the rest of the month with their families and friends. But the mindboggling tripart summer windfall of walk-ons has been decidedly favorable for the prospects of a big upside surprise in 2014-2015.

Any player personnel plans Coach Dave Rose had developed prior to June 1 have surely been thrown into a state of flux as 3 star recruits Dalton Nixon and Jake Toolson revised mission plans to enroll at BYU while Corbin Kaufusi has electrified close observers on the court with his exceptional size, strength, hops, and speed after two years in Korea and several inches of growth during the three year interim since his last full season of high school basketball. All three intend to play as walk-ons; rare if not unprecedented for multiple high end players at one university. Rose, who often jokes and muses about the longer range planning required in his job due to missions, now faces the added demand to deal with more spontaneous adjustments than other programs. One would have supposed that the unusual recruiting ups and downs during the 2013-2014 regular season were crazy enough with the splendid misery of watching two prized recruits (Jamal Aytes and Peyton Dastrup) ditch BYU at the last moment, and then suddenly reverse themselves to join the Cougars.

At the end of the summer, the net result is that Nixon, Toolson, and Kaufusi are set to be on the roster on opening day, Aytes becomes eligible on 12/20, while Dastrup is on his way to Panama for two years. They are all expected to mature into highly capable D-1 players. The team needs one more assist from heaven for the stars to line up just right: Kyle Collinsworth, the projected starter at the position with the least depth, point guard, needs to be 100% healthy from the start of the season. Without any of these nice surprises, BYU was set to have a good season; with them all in place, this team just might sneak up on the national basketball scene as an unrecognized powerhouse. Here are 5 reasons why:

1. The biggest reason for the team's impending improvement is that Collinsworth will serve as the unquestioned leader on the court! KC is about to be unleashed rather than short leashed as he was by the complications at PG last year. He might seem like a different player to some but the most profound change from last year will be that his role will move to full time multi-talented floor general. Collinsworth will be the man! i.e. the man with the ball in his hands, the man who controls the game on the court, the man who will distribute the ball to teammates, who will take it to the rim, and who will fill up the stat sheet with more than one triple double. To be sure, he must improve his free throw shooting. What he won't need to do is take more outside shots, regardless of whether or not he improves that part of his game. Collinsworth is brilliant at taking the ball to the rim and coaches will want him to do what he is brilliant at doing. Speculation to the contrary aside, Skyler Halford is the frontrunner to serve as KC's backup. Would like to see a way to bring Jordan Ellis into the picture.

2. Mika was a strong center but only averaged 25 minutes and many of those while tiptoeing on egg shells in foul trouble. There was a big drop off in the line-up during the 15 minutes while Mika sat out last season. Any advantage that BYU had with Mika at center over this year's best center is more than offset by the vastly stronger force among the backups at the post positions. Issac Neilson and Kaufusi will be more than competent and Nate Austin has improved his play on defense and rebounding in each of the last 3 years. Look for him to do so again. Surprisingly to me, Luke Worthington looks trimmer, quicker, and much improved. Moreover, Josh Sharp has had great moments every year and had excellent efficiency numbers last season on limited minutes. Ryan Andrus might surprise some people with his excellent outside shot.

3. Tyler Haws should be better, though that may not mean more scoring. Expect him to work hard to extend his shooting range and to play more consistent defense as the WCC player of the year eyes his shot at the pros. Look for Frank Bartley and Toolson to compete for minutes as Tyler's back-up.

4. Last season, 273 of the 498 shots from behind the arc (55%) were taken by two players who hit fewer than 1/3 of them. Expect that 80% of those 3s will be taken by players hitting close to 40% next year. And they will likely launch 100 more than last year. Chase Fischer at the SG makes this team a near cinch to hit 3s at a higher rate. Neilson, Nixon, Toolson, and Andrus look like they will be excellent 3 pt shooters. Anson Winder finished second in the WCC in offensive efficiency according to kenpom.com and hit 40% of his 3s last year. Bartley looks like he might be underrated again. He won't be asked to play PF at a height that is closer to 6'2" than 6'3;" Expect him to split his time among the PG, SG, and SF positions. Jordan Chatman, whom we haven't seen as he is still recovering from surgery, might be competing for the same minutes.

5. Aytes looks like he will serve as a solid major D-1 PF who simply knows how to rebound and how to power his way to the bucket against taller defenders. When Aytes needs a rest, Austin, Neilson and/or Nixon should effectively contribute at the 4.

Nothing matters more than Kyle's health; his superiority at PG compared to the last 3 years will likely enhance the play of everyone in the rotation. This is the one position where the drop off between the projected starter and his back ups is too big to fail.

In a word, this team looks significantly stronger at every position and in depth. Throw in the much more favorable home schedule next season and the team is set up to make some big time noise and a very special finish. Gonzaga may have its toughest fight from BYU next season. I am a quant so i'll put it this way: my baseline is BYU has a 50% chance to win 30 games and a 75% chance to win 28-32 games, if and only if KC returns at 100% to start the season.

BYU's most important 2014 pre-conference game is SDSU. It would not only mean a win over a top 20 program but a victory avoids a game against the SOS/RPI neutral Chaminade instead of a contest with mighty Pitt. (Thanks to CaliWG for advising us that D-2 games are not counted in SOS/RPI).

Regarding redshirting, don't see a reason for Rose to deal with that issue until November at the earliest as Aytes doesn't join the roster until December 20. Lots of possibilities but nothing is clear at this point. It may be a cliche to say the decision won't be easy but this time it is decidedly so. All of the new players look strong and all of the returning players have had their dominant moments in years past.

It is always a good time to talk BYU basketball!