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Aug 20, 2014
1:19:09pm
So if you look at the plays prior to where my analysis picks up (TD drive in 3Q)
Excluding the 2 min drill drive to end the 1st half (started with 1:41 to go) where we would obviously not want to run, the run/pass breakdown is 15 passes and 14 runs. The 3rd qtr TD drive was also 50/50 pass/run. The only time we started to shift more toward passing is at the end of the game (when we were down multiple scores) or end of the half (when we were in a 2 minute drill).

My whole point is that people look for something to pin a loss on, and the convenient thing to do is look at end of game stats to justify, without asking the question - what would I have done differently? So the question here is, when would you have run Unga over passing? These plays would be valid criticism. Looking at the pass plays in the portion of the game not covered by my previous analysis, there were 7 incomplete passes, and 1 completed pass for a loss - so we'll count that as an unsuccessful pass play as well. Of those 8, 2 were on 3rd and 8+, so now you're really down to 6 plays to criticize (rationally, anyway). Of those 6 plays, 3 of them happened on TD drives in the first half, so who cares? I suppose you could fairly criticize the remaining 3 plays:

1Q approx. 8 min to go, on U 22 - 3rd & 2 incomplete to Collie; result was a FG, so we still got 3 points.
3Q first drive of the half on BYU 38 - after we only manage 2 yards on a 1st down run, we throw 2 incomplete passes in a row on 2nd & 8 and 3rd & 8.

The above are fair criticism, but to make the claim that Anae abandoned the run, and that is the reason for the loss? Simply uninformed or biased. I suspect that what sticks out for everyone is the memory of all the Max Hall interceptions, and thinking "we should have been running Unga on those plays!" Of the 5 interceptions Max threw, 4 were in obvious passing situations (1 in 2 min drill to end 1st half, 3 in 4th qtr when down by double digits).

The valid criticism comes when you look at the 3rd quarter interception on 1st down with 4 min to go, trailing only by 3. Although, consider that Max had just completed 3 of 4 passes on the drive to move the ball 26 yards, so it was working up to that point. Hindsight is 20/20, but I suppose you could argue he should have run.

Another valid criticism is the next drive, still down 3 with less than a minute left in the 3Q, a pass play call on 2nd and 3 that resulted in a Max Hall fumble. Again 20/20, but fair to say would have been better to run Unga there.

The point is, that we can second guess a handful of plays, but to say that this loss is because Anae abandoned the run just isn't accurate or rational. Why aren't we focused on Max Hall's unbelievably bad performance (6 turnovers), or our defense giving up score after score?

Anae is not the reason we lost that game.






Runs = 14
Passes = 15
NOCAL_YFAN
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NOCAL_YFAN
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8/20/14 10:12am

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