Phil Steele: % chance of underdog winning outright by spread margin (2011 data)

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Sep 14, 2014
11:10:05pm

buckles

Phil Steele: % chance of underdog winning outright by spread margin (2011 data)

Spread # of Gms Won Outright %
31+ pts 596 6 1.01%
24.5-31 756 30 3.97%
17.5-24 1316 89 6.76%
14.5-17 836 110 13.16%
10.5-14 1458 306 20.99%
7.5-10 1360 359 26.39%
3.5-7 2476 865 34.94%
3 or less 1643 785 47.78%

http://www.philsteele.com/blogs/2012/Aug12/DBAug1.html

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buckles

Bio page: buckles
Joined: Dec 21, 2011
Last login: Dec 19, 2020
Total posts: 507 (4 FO)

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Messages

Author

Time

Wow

Walter Bellhaven

9/14/14 4:16pm

Vegas using reversed psychology on BYU.

brazilcoug

9/14/14 4:19pm

Seems high. I was expecting 6 or 7. Virginia looks like a really good team.

newey-west

9/14/14 4:19pm

Their D looks good. Offense looks average.

Walter Bellhaven

9/14/14 4:21pm

Their O might be okay if they bench Lambert and stick with Johns at QB

icecougar

9/15/14 1:17am

Hopefully we use the UVA game to prove once and for all that UCLA has no

ldssdl

9/14/14 4:34pm

how nice would a 59 - 0 beatdown be again...

Shore10

9/14/14 6:19pm

Makes me nervous to be favored so high...

rerunc

9/14/14 5:15pm

Any other examples than the win?

Walter Bellhaven

9/14/14 5:17pm

I'm not very good on historical data. It seems like we start getting the media

rerunc

9/14/14 5:45pm

Spread doesn't mean a thing. We always seem to be favored against Utah and lose.

BlueForLife

9/14/14 6:45pm

So being favored by 30 is the same as being 30 point underdogs?

Walter Bellhaven

9/14/14 6:54pm

Doesn't mean anything for the actual game on the field. Just matters as to

giftedfish

9/14/14 7:01pm

This is incorrect.

Walter Bellhaven

9/14/14 7:10pm

RE: Doesn't mean anything for the actual game on the field. Just matters as too

LasvegasfireCoug

9/14/14 7:10pm

RE: Doesn't mean anything for the actual game on the field. Just matters as too

LasvegasfireCoug

9/14/14 7:13pm

Vegas does know what they are talking about yet they can't predict every outcome

BlueForLife

9/14/14 8:20pm

Now would be a good time to lay that bet then and take the points.

9/15/14 5:04pm

Phil Steele: % chance of underdog winning outright by spread margin (2011 data)

buckles

9/14/14 11:10pm

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