We've debated this for a little while now. Rosey, at least, has seen the newcomers play recently - so he has an inside edge to what he's saying, and personally I love his optimism. However, even if CK develops into a great post presence AND KC stays healthy, there are definitely potential losses to SDSU, Pitt, and against what will be a solid third round team in Mauii. If BYU loses against SDSU, there next game will be a win - so at most 2 losses there. If they beat SDSU, Pitt will be VERY tough to emerge victorious against. And in the third round, Arizona, anyone? Other potential non-conference losses against Utah, Weber State, Stanford, UMass in the non conference. In conference, potential losses to Gonzaga twice, Santa Clara away, SF away, SMU away - and they always seem to drop one in which they're highly favored. In the tourney, they will probably lose to the Zags (who, despite my best efforts, practically have home court advantage there).

So if they make it to that point playing 31 games, that's 12 potential losses in tough games (not counting any if BYU gets upset by conference teams on the road). But part of Rosey's optimism comes from a pretty favorable schedule. They will almost surely come out of Hawaii with one or two losses, so let's say two. We get an emerging Utah team at home, so let's say it's a win. I think we can take Weber in a hostile environment. We get Stanford and UMass at home a team we beat and a team you have to think we can beat at home. Much press has gone to Stanford's newcomers being excellent, so this will be a VERY tough one. Let's say we pick up another loss between the two. We WILL lose to the Zags at Gonzaga - their team will be insane. SF away will be so tough, SMU seems to be faltering a bit, the Zags at home will be tough. Let's add another loss or two there. So, that's 5-6 losses out of 31 games. Let's go with 6, so that's 25-6 going into the post season. If we can get a decent seed, that's probably a win or two in the tourney.

So he's not that far off. I can see how this team gets to 27 wins - but to win 30, something special has to happen. They would beat both UMASS and Stanford, only lose in Mauii once, and win 2 of either SFU, SMU on the road or the Zags at home. Tall order.