(after writing out this whole long post i realized i left out OU...edited...)

1. Oregon - Marriota is best player in college football...stanford is worse than i thought, diddo for P12south...i don't see them losing

2. SEC Champ - my guess is probably Bama right now...even with a loss i still think committee ranks them this high

3. OU - i don't see them losing to any Big12 team

at this point the committee is going to be forced to choose from what i believe will be 4 "deserving" teams: one-loss FSU, one-loss Sparty, two-loss SEC West #2 and 12-0 BYU. given Winston fatigue, B1G "weakness" and BYU's non-P5-ness i think they go with SEC #2 and justify it with all the "ranked" teams Auburn will have beaten.

4. SEC West #2 (prob Auburn) - SEC East is weak, but whoever SEC #1 beats out i think will be given a chance in playoff over one-loss FSU.

5. Sparty - i think they'll win out but be kept out due to B1G weakness

6. ND - one loss somewhere but very solid.

7. FSU - i think they lose a game somewhere...maybe ND/UF/UVA?. their one loss will be deemed worse than MSU's road loss at oregon and SEC West #2's 2 losses.

8. BYU

Bowls:

Rose (CFP) - Oregon vs Auburn - rematch would be cool
Sugar (CFP) - Bama vs OU - great D vs talented O...crazy good.

Cotton: B1G #2 or pac12#3 vs TAMU
Fiesta: BYU vs ND (wouldn't that be awesome!...indy bowl!)
Orange: FSU vs Sparty (contracted)
Peach: ECU (G5 bid) vs Pac12 #2 (prob Stanford or UCLA)