BYU will win one more game this season that it isn't supposed to. I think it will be tonight against BSU, but it could be Cal. BYU will beat MTSU and Savannah and UNLV, mostly because it's almost impossible not to. That makes for 8-4, and BYU loses the bowl game to someone you only know if you're a rabid college football fan.

There will be much talk about injuries - the national and even local press is not nearly as disappointed with BYU as CB is - and how BYU could have had something special had he not gotten hurt. There will be a small amount of firing talk, but nothing that actually rises to the level of making it a real possibility. Bronco will fire someone in the offseason, oh, excuse me. Bronco will state that someone is moving on to other opportunities in the offseason. It might be Anae, whose cred has to be moderately restored by the way BYU is playing offense this season, especially since the numbers haven't dipped much even with all the injuries. But it might be Howell. When that happens, the replacement will be someone that has a very modest background as a coach, from outside the current coaching tree. There will be calls to let a senior-laden team have a shot against a very robust early schedule. There will be talk of changes to training regimen, attitude, Bronco's focus (back on the defense).

2015 will open with a couple of wins and a couple of losses - I can see us winning two of the first four, beating Boise and one other, probably Michigan (though that one's not going to be easy). BYU will then win seven straight, and climb into the rankings in the low 20s. And then comes the game that matters more than any other game in Bronco's entire tenure: at Utah State to end 2015.

If BYU loses, Bronco will be "called to other opportunities" in a very ham-handed semi-firing that will take out all the other coaches as well, with the possible exception of Anae. There is a chance he'll stick. But should BYU win that USU game - possible - and the bowl game - also possible - BYU will find itself 11-2 with a 9-game win streak, ranked 17th or so, and absolutely unable to fire Bronco Mendenhall and retain any sort of credibility.

CB-grade BYU fans expect BYU to compete with some success against anyone in the country, but we, folks, are the only ones. No one outside this world is even moderately surprised that BYU is 4-3. I'm not sure Bronco expects BYU to compete, either, regardless of what he says. That's irrelevant. If BYU goes 11-2 next season, that will be ten straight winning seasons, ten straight bowl games. Firing a coach that did that would be almost impossible, PR-wise. And BYU won't do it.

Odds of the following, as I see them:

BYU winning out: 25%
BYU losing more than two more games this year (including bowl): 40%
Bronco being fired before the season is over: 0%
Bronco being fired after winning out: 0%
Bronco being fired after three ugly losses to BSU, Cal, and Southeastern Nobody Tech: 10%
Bronco retiring on his own in the offseason: 0%
BYU winning out in 2015: 5%
BYU losing more than 4 games in 2015: 5%
Bronco being fired after losing the first four in 2015: 10%
Bronco being "non-renewed" after losing the first four and winning out: 35%
Bronco being "non-renewed" after splitting the first four and winning out: 0%
Bronco being "non-renewed" after any season result with a win over USU: 10%
Bronco being "non-renewed" after losing an undefeated season at USU: 0%
Bronco being "non-renewed" after any other season result plus loss at USU: 40%
Odds Bronco just doesn't renew himself after 2015: unknowable, but I think there is some substantial chance he'll leave with Taysom, on his own.

What I hope happens? I'm a BYU fan. I hope we win out, convincingly, and Bronco sorts out the coaching problems internally. Taysom rehabs like a lion and comes back full speed next year. BYU rolls over the first four opponents and runs the table, making a NY6 bowl, and winning it. Before the season, Bronco says "I have no idea how good we'll be. That will be shown on the field." After every win, he says, "That was really fortunate. The other team played a great game and we were very proud to be on the field with them. We have so many things to work on. I take full responsibility for making sure we get better next week against X, because they're excellent, and we'll have to be at our best to beat them." What about the turnovers, coach? "I'm going to refocus on ball security. BYU should never turn the ball over. If we do, it's because I'm doing something wrong, and I'll have to get better." Penalties? "Some penalties just happen, but one of the ones we had today was just losing our head. That can't happen. BYU doesn't play that way. I'm going to have to look at ways to coach better so that never happens again." Rankings? "I never look at them. No idea." Bowl game? "Other people decide that. We'll play anyone, and do our best to win."

Taysom wins the Heisman. JSwag runs for BYU record yardage. The backup QB gets significant reps in games. BYU leads the nation in fewest penalties and fewest turnovers and 3rd-down conversions and blue-zone conversions and defensive points allowed.

What will happen? I certainly don't know. But I do sincerely believe that all this hoo-hah about Bronco comes down to one game: USU at the end of next year. Win it, and he probably stays. Lose it, and he's probably gone. He won't be fired before that.