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Nov 26, 2014
1:03:00pm
I think the CFP is setting up perfectly for the Big 12 to get shafted.
Here are your current top seven teams and who they have remaining on their schedule:
1. Alabama (vs. #15 Auburn, SEC championship game*)
2. Oregon (@ Oregon State, PAC 12 championship game)
3. Florida State (vs. Florida, ACC championship game)
4. Mississippi State (@ #19 Ole Miss, SEC championship game*)
5. TCU (@ Texas, vs. Iowa State)
6. Ohio State (vs. Michigan, Big 10 championship game)
7. Baylor (@Texas Tech, vs. #12 KState)

*If Alabama beats Auburn they win the SEC West, if they lose and Miss St. beats Ole Miss then Miss St. will win the SEC West.

There are a couple of scenarios that will turn the heat up on the Big 12 if they ever want to make the 4 team playoff.

SCENARIO 1 - The top 4 teams win out
Alabama beats Auburn and then defeats either #17 Missouri or #9 Georgia in the SEC title game
Oregon beats Oregon State and then defeats either #8 UCLA, #11 Arizona, or #13 Arizona State in the PAC 12 title game
Florida State beats Florida and then defeats #16 Georgia Tech in the ACC title game
Mississippi State beats Ole Miss

I don't see any way TCU or Baylor jump any of the top four if they win out. Mississippi State would be the only team in a little bit of danger but considering their only loss would be on the road by five to the number one team in the country, I think they will be fine.

If TCU was playing Baylor for the Big 12 championship while Mississippi State was sitting at home watching the SEC championship, the winner of the Big 12 would jump them and everyone knows it.

SCENARIO 2 - One of the top 4 teams loses but the rest of the top 7 win out
I actually think one of the top 4 teams will stumble this week opening the door for TCU to enter the top 4 in the 4th spot. Ohio State would move up to five and Baylor would be six. While TCU is playing Iowa State, Ohio State would be playing in the Big 10 championship game against #14 Wisconsin. Ohio State then jumps TCU in the final rankings and takes the fourth spot.

This scenario is actually better for BYU than scenario one because it sends the very clear message that if you don't win your CCG you will be dropped in favor of another team that did.

So basically, you want to cheer for all the favorites over the next two weeks, even the top teams from the Big 12. They need to win out and still come up short. The bad news for BYU will be if multiple teams in the top 4 lose either this week or in their CCG. That will allow a one loss TCU or Baylor to make the playoff and effectively end the discussion that the Big 12 has to expand to remain relevant on the field.

Also you should be cheering that the SEC gets two teams in the CFP. If both the Big 12 and 10 get shafted then there will be more urgency to expand the playoffs to eight teams.
kudzucoug
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kudzucoug
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