This article takes the 75 teams (the P5 conferences plus Big East and American, BSU, BYU and ND) and sorts them into 5 tiers according to recruiting rankings. The whole thing is worth a read but for those too lazy to read the link BYU comes in as a 2 star.

Here is how the groups did in the 1,488 games against each other from 2010-2013:

No surprise that those who recruit better win more games against tougher competition. For reference BYU's overall winning pct. was .391 against those teams. By group BYU was .667 vs 1 stars, .444 vs 2 stars, .2 vs 3 stars, .667 vs 4 stars, and .2 vs 5 stars. So by the data BYU underachieved against 2 and 3 stars and were above average against 1,4 and 5 star programs.

The biggest jump on the overall wining pct. is between 2 and 3 star programs. Is it too unreasonable to expect BYU to recruit at a 3 star level (in the 35-50 range) instead of a 2 star level (50-70 range) on any given signing day?