Big 10 - Four locks. After that, Michigan State is 19-9, Indiana is 19-10 and Ohio State is 20-8.

Big 12 - Four locks. Then there's Oklahoma St at 16-10 and Texas at 17-11.

ACC - Five locks. Then Pitt at 18-10, NC State at 17-11, Syracuse at 18-10, Miami at 18-10.

Big East - Four locks. Then Xavier at 18-11, St John's at 18-9, Seton Hall at 15-12.

Pac 12 - Three locks. Then UCLA at 17-12, Stanford at 18-9.

Mountain West - Two locks. Then Boise at 19-7 and Wyoming at 19-7.

SEC - Two locks. Then Georgia at 18-9, Texas A&M 19-8, Mississippi 19-9, LSU 20-8.

Atlantic 10 - Two locks. Then UMass at 16-11 and Rhode Island at 18-7.

I agree with you that the WCC is only one lock. But BYU at 20-8 and St Mary's at 20-7 are right there with all the other bubble teams above. In BYU's case, beating St. Mary's and just playing Gonzaga twice more would give an RPI in the top 40 and a record of 22-10 (excluding non-D1). With BYU's star power, fan base and tourney history, I think that team dances.