Here's what Eamonn Brennan says about that...
A so-so mid-major league with one great team is the would-be bid thief's path of least resistance. This season, those paths don't exist. If Murray State loses in the Ohio Valley final, its conqueror won't steal a bubble team's bid. It will take Murray State's.
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch