2011-2014 BYU had the following win percentages vs opponents from the following conferences:
http://cfbdatawarehouse.com/data/active/b/brigham_young/vs_conf.php?start=2011&end=2014
vs FCS 4-0 100%
vs P5/ND 9-11 45%
vs MWC 10-5 66.7%
vs AAC 5-2 71.4%
This year:
4 P5 1.8
4 MWC 2.7
3 AAC 2.1
1 FCS 1.0
Off course this year the p5 games are on the road, but BYU has a senior QB. The optimist in me says 8 wins, but 7 is just as likely. BYU beats 1 P5 team, but loses to 1 MWC/AAC team.
Plan accordingly.