The Vegas Bowl gets the #6 pick from the P12 teams. Assuming that in a typical year there's 2 P12 teams in the NY6 games that would mean that Vegas typically gets the 7th place team in the conference. Looking back at the last 4 season since the P12 expanded, the 7th place team was 5-4 in '14 and '12 and was 4-5 in '13 and '11. That means that if BYU plays in Vegas it will likely be against a team who went either 5-4 or 4-5 in conference play and would typically have an overall record of 7-5 (though could be anywhere from 6-6 to 8-4).