Yes you are correct that the level it takes is much less than in criminal court. It still needs to have more than just "probably" imo. I guess I more view it like 75%+ likely in my mind, but then I'm not a lawyer and know nothing other than my perception of civil cases I hear about. I am surprised they didn't just reduce it to like one game or a fine though. The biggest reason seems to be that their main evidence was him withholding the phone and they just took a leap and said there was only one explanation for that.