Sign up, and you can make all message times appear in your timezone. Sign up
Oct 5, 2015
8:28:13am
If BYU is to be good, Pomeroy and efficiency can't be discussed too much.
The entire quality of a team can be summed up in two numbers: adj offensive efficiency and adj. defensive efficiency or offensive and defensive "points per possession (PPP)." Last year BYU was 12th in O-PPP, which is among the best ever at BYU, and 160th in D-PPP, which would be good for a team aspiring to break into the the top 200 in the nation.

Smart coaches started using Pomeroy's stuff a decade ago, right after the smart baseball people started using Bill James' stuff after Moneyball came to light. Brad Stevens took Butler to the FF twice with that edge and got himself an NBA job out of it.

Below is a good article about the subject, though it's a couple of years old.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1556819-the-ken-pomeroy-effect-how-advanced-metrics-have-revolutionized-ncaa-basketball

BYU's defense will be better this year because bigs matter a lot on defense. Perhaps more importantly, Quincy Lewis is a believer that PPP tells the whole story and that he intends to implement a new defensive philosophy after the order of UVA. If Donovan can raise the Gators' D-PPP from 71st to 2 in one year by using Pomeroy, there is reason to be optimistic about BYU basketball in 2015-2016 achieving something very special.

Below is Dave Rose's adjusted (PPP) record for each of his 10 years at BYU both offense and defense.

Interesting that best adjusted O-PPP under Rose was 2006-2007 while best D-PPP was 2007-2008. Best average of the two was 2010-2011. It should also be noted that two Rose teams have finished with top 25 defenses and three others that were pretty decent, despite perceptions that his defense never gets it done. Anything worse than top 50 is likely too much to overcome to be ranked.

2015--W/L 25-10, O-PPP 12, D-PPP 160;

2014--W/L 23-12, O-PPP 34, D-PPP 104;

2013--W/L 24-12, O-PPP 48, D-PPP 90;

2012--W/L 26-9, O-PPP 133, D-PPP 25;

2011--W/L 32-5, O-PPP 11, D-PPP 38;

2010--W/L 30-6, O-PPP 12, D-PPP 51;

2009--W/L 25-8, O-PPP 29, D-PPP 39;

2008--W/L 27-8, O-PPP 112, D-PPP 11;

2007--W/L 25-9, O-PPP 10, D-PPP 105;

2006--W/L 20-9, O-PPP 62, D-PPP 165.

source: Pomeroy.

Correlation nationwide over many years of W/L to offensive/defensive PPP is high. Kind of like total point differential for the year which depends on average margin of victory which clearly correlates to W/L.

Check out this page which shows the "adjusted" O-PPP and D-PPP for last year for all 351 teams. I think Pomeroy's adjustment considers ranking of opponent.

http://kenpom.com
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Oct 5, 2015 at 8:28:13am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 8:30:45am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 8:33:11am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 8:34:23am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 8:38:29am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 9:10:52am
Message modified by roseyscenario on Oct 5, 2015 at 10:01:35am
roseyscenario
Previous username
addedupon
Bio page
roseyscenario
Joined
Jul 15, 2011
Last login
Apr 26, 2024
Total posts
22,882 (3,941 FO)
Messages
Author
Time

Posting on CougarBoard

In order to post, you will need to either sign up or log in.