lose to Gonzaga in Spokane, and possibly BYU or GU in the conference tournament. Any other loss would doom them.

The thing people are forgetting about SMC is that they don't have a bad loss. Their 4 losses are to the following teams:

#30 RPI Cal (road)
#71 RPI BYU (road)
#102 RPI Pepperdine (road)
#102 Pepperdine (home)

They have 4 quality wins:

#62 RPI Gonzaga (home)
#69 RPI UC Irvine (home)
#71 RPI BYU (home)
#82 RPI Stanford (home)

There are two knocks against them: No quality road wins, and no Top 50 RPI wins. If Gonzaga wins at #13 RPI SMU tomorrow the 2nd one will probably be taken care of. They have one more chance to get a quality road win (at GU), but that's probably not happening. However, as long as they don't pick up a bad loss, I think Lunardi is right (they will be in. They have enough pretty good wins, and no bad losses). However, despite their great record, they will get what they deserve (a bad seed) because their OOC was weak and they didn't pick up any quality road wins.