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Feb 13, 2016
12:14:34pm
MatthiasG All-American
Tech analysis, TA, TA, TA. When I transitioned out of the brokerage industry
and into trading my own, and a few large clients stuff, it was surprising just how much my brokerage training made me the opposite of a good trader and active asset manager. FA was always the focus, but moreso, selling and gathering assets.

TA should be your main focus, there's plenty of free online stuff and books to start with. More than anything, at first, taking advantage of the huge volatility and market swings was my focus, long before I settled on a trading strategy I was good at and worked for me. People talk about not being able to time the mkt, which is true. However, common sense re market cycles is enough to be a very successful investor. For example, tech bubble 2000, mortgage crisis 08' and fed trickeration pushing the SP 500 over 2000 are opportunities to scale out of stocks near high water mark. I failed to do so in tech bubble, and firm pushback in time leading up to Mortgage dark clouds was my sign it was time to move on.

To me, as mentioned on CB, TA made it clear as we ran into glass ceiling resistance at the same highs 4-5x on SP & Dow, it was time to scale out into cash and take advantage of the short ETFs avail to the little guy nowadays. From Dow 6500 to 18.5k, that 200%+ bounce was a common sense thing and TA confirmed beacon IMO. Not all big mkt events are as obvious as the stuff mentioned, but being able to scale out high, and scale in from -20% and down, proportionally larger chunks lower it goes is every bit as important as becoming a good trader.

Building short positions near highs, and scaling in oil and gold at record 5-10 yrs has been my focus. Now, I utilize the lev'd ETFs, short and long, which I only recco for the very experienced. But the more the wipeout and carnage and the more "chunks" I scale in. I started doing it w stocks like FB after the 30s IPO when it promptly fell to 18, and many other examples, I use 12-14 equal sized chunks and like w ERX, I started in long before its recent 52 WK and all time low, but done right one should end up w a CB of 18-20/Sh or even better in some accts. Doesnt matter to me if it takes 12 months to 36 months to bounce, oil gets back to 40-50/barrell and it's a nice trade.

Same w NUGT, started early w that too, relatively speaking, done right, you're still likely to be behind on the trade. But when it bounces, doesn't require too much movement in the price of bullion to turn a nice profit.

When I was learning, a lot of traders were very open and helpful w sharing their strategies and systems. What I settle on and end up doing best might be way different from my mentors, but their hard won wisdom and knowledge, when u talk to right people, was offered freely and w/o expecting anything in return. There's a lot of "expert traders" for paid sites online that are lying hacks. I just laid out my whole system. BM me if any questions about this or anything. Some think it takes magic or brilliance or whatever, but a lot more common sense at times, and ignoring what most of the talking heads and gurus say. They hated Gold at 1000. and the lev'd miners ETF NUGT at 20, now at 1200. and 50s NUGT, they can't write enough about it. But a bounce trader or bottom feeder is ready w full or mostly full positions w bounce happens. Businesses schools teach "don't catch a falling knife" and don't start buying before 200d moving avg has been broken and held etc. So, it's not for everyone. I'm always baffled when hear gurus talk about Dow 18k, a great place to buy, and they hated adding $ at at Dow 7k in 09'. Not everyone of course, but the way I learned was jumping in w some of my own $, and not making big mistakes w clients $. Early on, my best moves were by not trading at all, as I went solo in 08'. I was skeptical of mortgage thing, and went my Grandma started talking about flipping houses and can't lose, I knew the gravy train was headed for a cliff.

I guess u could say, my trading strategy is going in and buying all those vacant homes for .50 on dollar and holding them til the rebound. Works precisely because people are scared off or broke already, and he w Capital can benefit from the bubbles burst, and should see it coming to a degree and have $ out of harms way. Hold and hope is long dead in the big volatility of last 20 yrs, yet people are more fearful moving to cash, as brokers and retail investors have been conditioned w wrong wisdom. Some bubbles are absolutely visible, and why not at least go to cash to wait it out. Gotta use the volatility to your advantage, or get trapped in long dead $ periods, holding and hoping to get back to where u once were. You can't tell I love talking about this stuff can u, this was even on my phone, ha. --Good trading. Didn't have time to proofread
MatthiasG
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MatthiasG
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