And if they don't, why would a MWC contract be any better at that point?

If the source of unsustainability is $, then independence is clearly better than G5. We have flexibility in our contract arrangements, we've made roughly 3x what me made in the MWC as an independent football program, and this has enhanced our ability to pay our student stipends and increase coaches' salaries substantially. The MWC is dividing up (unevenly) ~$40 million TOTAL for the entire conference this year. There is no way our share would be better in the MWC than contracting ourselves out for broadcasting revenues.

If the source is access to playoffs or P5 opponents, then independence is clearly better than G5. If we were in the MWC right now, we would have a GOR to worry about. We wouldn't be considered by the other conferences as a P5-equivalent as we are now. Our schedules would be worse than they are now. The only thing that MWC membership would offer is the ability to go to a Top 6 Bowl if we were the highest ranked G5 team. That's it. Realistically, our chances at the playoff are at best the same if we are in a G5 conference compared to being independent.

Is independence a good long-term solution based on the current climate? No, and I think we can agree there. But G5 would make a tough situation worse. Either way, we do have to get into a P5 conference to survive long-term. But you are implying that BYU will go back to a G5 conference with its tail between its legs, which is not going to happen.