How important are market sizes to the league if a traditional cable channel is dead?

Two weeks ago at Pac-12 media days, commissioner Larry Scott gave some fascinating insight into the future of broadcast rights. He listed seven companies the Pac-12 is actively building relationships with that could become bidders on the league’s rights when its current Tier 1 rights expire in 2024: Amazon, Google/YouTube, Twitter, Facebook, Apple, Netflix and Snapchat. He added: “I think there’s a good chance you and I are sitting here five years from now, even before our TV rights come up, and are talking about some of the [seven] that I just mentioned in the same breath as Direct TV and Comcast and in the same breath as ESPN and Fox.”

That said, markets and viewers are still important. But perhaps viewed through a different paradigm. BYU has the strongest national following of any candidate because of its religious affiliation with the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. BYU’s television market is ranked No. 37, but its following would resonate if the next round of television contracts features subscription-based models. How real is Netflix bidding with ESPN for the Big 12? We’ll find out soon. Is this perhaps why the conference is leveraging ESPN and FOX for so much money now? Will they need them later? Again, we revert back to the league’s propensity for not thinking that far ahead.

Our first clue on the next wave of broadcast rights will come in a few years. The prevailing industry thought is that the Big Ten’s recently announced six-year deal—through 2022–23—was done for a short period of time by commissioner Jim Delany in order to exploit the new wave of bidders.