Let's see, Curtis Brown. Most BYU fans have heard of that guy. 300 yds and 4.2 ypc as a freshman. 800 yds as a soph, and so on. Harvey Unga was a RS freshman when he got the driver's seat. He didn't do anything as a freshman. Di Luigi turned into a guy who went for a thousand and he was a nobody as a freshman. Whalen had 200 yds as a freshman and later was a thousand yd guy. Staley didn't have to wait behind a great feature back.
Now let's go back and use your knowledge of the future to predict things... We'll have to say Curtis Brown isn't going to amount to much of anything. He'll never go on to be the leading rusher. Harvey Unga... Who? Should we keep going? I'd say there's no logic here but it's more a lack of memory. Or you just became a BYU fan in like 2012.
Even having this conversation about the future of guys based solely on what they did as new players is just stupid. This logic would mean college football should be full of failures. Hardly anyone would amount to anything.
Among the dumbest threads on CB are those trying to project careers based on what guys do as first year players.