I keep hearing the argument that the BE would be better than being independent because a conference, even the lousy BE, will give us meaningful games in November as we chase a conference championship. I started to wonder, historically, how often has BYU been in the middle of a heated race for the conference championship in November, making games against otherwise lackluster opponents (NM, WY, CSU, etc) "meaningful."

During the time BYU was part of the MWC:

In 2010, BYU finished 5-3 in the MWC. TCU won the conference at 8-0. BYU was basically out of contention after losing to TCU on October 16. November was basically meaningless as far as a race for a conference championship to BYU.

In 2009, After losing to a TCU juggernaut in the 4th conference game of the year, BYU had only a mathematical, but not a realistic shot at a conference championship. Our only slim possibility was hoping for a Ute upset of TCU later that season, which would have, at best, given BYU a tie. Mathematically BYU was in a conference race in November during 2009, but our hopes for a conference title was based primarily on a game being played between TCU and Utah. If Utah would beat TCU, then BYU beats Utah (which we did), there would have been a 3-way tie for first place.

In 2008, BYU had a major setback when they lost to TCU 32-7 on October 16 (second conference game of the season). Mathematically, the conference race went down to the last game of the year, and if we could have beat Utah, there would have been a 3-way tie for first.

In 2007, BYU won the conference going away. TCU was out of the race early losing a September game to AFA, and October games to Wyoming and Utah. The Utes started the season 0-2 in conference play and were never part of the race. AFA, who ended up second in conference (2 games behind BYU), lost to BYU in September, then lost to New Mexico in October. By the time November rolled around, BYU had a two game lead in conference with games against TCU (4-4 in conference), Wyoming (2-6), SDSU (3-5) and Utah (5-3). The only interesting November game was Utah, but only because it was Utah.

In 2006, BYU won the conference with an 8-0 Record. TCU was second at 6-2, and Utah and Wyoming ended at 5-3. TCU lost in back to back weeks (last week of Sept, first week of Oct) to BYU and Utah, realistically taking them out of the race. Utah lost in back to back weeks to Wyoming and NM in October, taking them out of the race. BYU began November with a two game lead in conference with upcoming games against CSU (ended the season 4-8), Wyoming (6-6), NM (6-7), and Utah (8-5). Utah was the only meaningful November game, and only because it was the Holy War.

In 2005, BYU lost its first two conference games to TCU and SDSU. We finished the season 6-6 and were never in the conference race. TCU won the conference running away (8-0). Other than the Holy War, November was essentially meaningless to BYU.

In 2002-2004, BYU's conference record was 2-5, 3-4, and 4-3 and never finished higher than 3rd. Mathematically, BYU was not eliminated from a chase for the conference championship in 2004 until the second week of November when they lost to NM, but they never were realistically in the hunt. They started off the season 1-3 before beating CSU, then losing to UNLV. It was clear by the 4th week of the season that BYU wasn't realistically in the game for a conference championship.

In 2001, BYU went 12-1 and 7-0 in conference. CSU finished second at 5-2. The conference race was over on Nov. 1 when BYU beat CSU, giving them a 2 game lead with only Wyoming (finished 0-7 in conference) and Utah (4-3) left on the conference schedule. Ironically, the biggest games that year were OOC games at the end of the year on 12/1 against Miss St. and 12/8 against Hawaii.

In 2000, BYU had a Sept loss to AFA and an October loss to SDSU. At the beginning of November, CSU was undefeated in conference. November started by CSU beating BYU, making the entire month of November essentially meaningless as far as a conference championship.

In 1999, BYU started off conference play 5-0 then lost it's last two games. BYU ended up in a 3-way tie for 1st in the new MWC with CSU and Utah. The month of November was meaningful to BYU in 1999.

I would argue that the end of the conference season was "meaningful" to BYU in terms of whether or not BYU was realistically challenging or being challenged for a conference championship in 1999, 2008, and 2009. I suppose you could make an argument for 2004 as well, but that was a BYU team that started off 2-4 and never looked like it was championship caliber.

So . . . in 3 out of 12 years or 25% of the time, November games are more "meaningful" because a close conference race was on the line. In addition, in 2001, 2006 and 2007, BYU won the conference, but was not ever seriously challenged, so you could argue that in 50% of the years, being in a conference might add some added level of significance to late-season games.