A 40% daily growth rate would basically make the number of cases double in two days

Apr 2, 2020
11:17:54am

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

A 13% daily growth rate will cause the number to double in six days. So 13% isn't great — it's just a lot better than 40%.

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Indy Coug

Bio page: Indy Coug
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Last login: Jun 2, 2024
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Messages

Author

Time

The rate of the increase in daily new cases in the US is decreasing

Indy Coug Loquacious Lummox

4/2/20 10:43am

Nice work, everyone! Social distancing FTW.

SandYFan

4/2/20 10:44am

How much longer will the economy be shut down?

boogers

4/2/20 11:03am

No one knows!

SandYFan

4/2/20 11:08am

When do YOU think it should open up?

boogers

4/2/20 11:15am

Ummmmmmmmmmmm,

CodeBlueCoug

4/2/20 11:30am

Don't share good news or hope on here. Shame.

Benfica1

4/2/20 10:45am

Almost all cases they are seeing now have had symptoms

travelcoug

4/2/20 10:45am

My daughter is on day 10 of her fever and cough

bluelands

4/2/20 10:54am

So sorry to hear. Best wishes for her recovery.

mannheimadler

4/2/20 11:02am

Interesting thing is you hear so much about how contagious it is

bluelands

4/2/20 11:06am

Get this now

travelcoug

4/2/20 11:20am

Thanks for posting good news

johnnybyu

4/2/20 10:49am

maybe but the graph is total cases.

TomPetty

4/2/20 10:50am

Epidemic growth is measured by exponential growth. That's a function of the rate of growth

Indy Coug

4/2/20 10:54am

Exactly and the time it takes to get to zero growth matters

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:00am

Right but everyone has been talking about flattening the curve, that's the most

Windward_Coug

4/2/20 11:02am

This thread is the perfect example how people don't understand what

CSoul

4/2/20 11:05am

Wow, I’m a 1 percenter!

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:12am

I'm not smart with this stuff. So are you saying this is a positive sign graph

Baseball77

4/2/20 11:14am

A 40% daily growth rate would basically make the number of cases double in two days

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:17am

The question is the timing of the limiting rate of growth.

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:14am

Right, and I think the chart shows there is showing a fairly rapid drop in that rate right now

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:16am

Fair enough and certainly good news

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:17am

CSoul is so smart.

Benfica1

4/2/20 11:16am

Way smarter than most and doing good work

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:18am

Nah.

Benfica1

4/2/20 11:24am

I’ll bet you $1,000 his IQ is more than 1 SD

TomPetty

4/2/20 11:26am

What is the rate of doubling of deaths?

Archaea

4/2/20 10:53am

Misleading to show % growth in TOTAL cases. Law of large numbers.

beantownblue

4/2/20 10:53am

The law of large numbers would apply to something like the mortality rate

Indy Coug

4/2/20 11:00am

which uses total cases as its denomenator, does it not? But in any event, the rate of change is useful info

Bob Vance

4/2/20 11:18am

how does that compare to the number of new tests?

Littlerich

4/2/20 11:00am

You should use a three day rolling average, call it Social Defensive Efficiency

IAmSpartyCoug

4/2/20 11:04am

That'll smooth it but it really doesn't alter the slope very much

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