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Jul 13, 2020
3:31:50pm
roseyscenario All-American
No. Tech spending fell off a cliff after Y2K as nearly every business on earth
modernized their computer systems to prepare for the fear of Y2K.

Therefore, even the great tech companies of the late 1990s, which were growing annual revenue at 50%-100% which justified their valuations to those who assumed continued high growth after Y2K, saw tech spending crash from 50-100% growth to 0-10% growth. You didn't have to be that smart to see that scenario, but not many did. Everyone had a modern system at the same time. After a few years, tech spending returned, predictably.

No such circumstances exist today. Cloud spending and the transformative move to digital is almost certain to continue at a high rate. You can argue that advertising spending on Google, FB, TTD, ROKU, etc. will see a temporary slow down.

There will be losers in the sector. As is the case in all tech revolutions, most tech companies will fail. But there will be big winners among the well led transformative companies. As Buffett pointed out in 1999 in referring to the invention of the automobile and airplane, everyone knew that technology was the future, yet most auto manufacturers and airlines went broke during the century, and only a very few flourished.

I could go on...this period has very little in common with 2000.
This message has been modified
Originally posted on Jul 13, 2020 at 3:31:50pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Jul 13, 2020 at 3:34:15pm
Message modified by roseyscenario on Jul 13, 2020 at 3:35:46pm
roseyscenario
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