Based upon rating difference we "should" win by about 7 or 8 points. If we only win by 2 or 3 points then we may move down a little bit. If we beat them by 15+ then we probably move up a little.
For comparison sake, we were "supposed" to beat San Francisco by about 11 or 12 points. We only beat them by 6 and moved down a few spots. How other teams ranked around us does impact that some as well as they'd move up and down based upon their performances.