I haven't looked to see how locked in Tony is at 12, but if he drops (and his form hasn't been great this summer) because someone wins an event and jumps him, then his chances really drop IMHO. It seems that the captains of late have gone chalk and just picked the next guys in the rankings. Ryder Cup captains aren't necessarily chance takers that are going to pick a guy at 20 based upon a hunch.