So the way I see it, there's a couple possibilities
- Rodgers stays healthy this year, ZW plays limited to no snaps. In this case, no way the 5th year option gets exercised.
- Rodgers gets hurt and Zach plays meaningful snaps
- Zach plays poorly or just OK, doesn't get his option exercised
- Zach plays lake a franchise QB for an extended period of time, gets his 5th year option exercised.
Unless 2-2 happens, then Zach again goes into 2024 as the backup (and without franchise invested in him anymore), either behind Rodgers (if he returns for a second year) or behind some other vet. Barring injury, he again doesn't have the chance to make a big splash, so hits the market with limited interest and teams considering him as a backup only
Bottom line, at some point he has to step in for an injured starter and play very well - could be this year, could be next year, could be after that on a different team