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Apr 28, 2015
10:10
:16
am
(Private)
That's what I was thinking... so he is incorrect in saying less than 7% chance
of winning 10 games.
Obviously this is based on a completely arbitrary model and assumption of percentages... (no offense to Nashty).
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Messages
Author
Time
BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions
nashty
4/27/15 4:55pm
Something I learned from the bowl game vs Washington two years ago.
Blueto
4/27/15 5:11pm
Except Bronco got out coached by an interim HC
LV Mike
4/27/15 5:28pm
Just what aspects of that game do you attribute to coaching and what to talent,
basman
4/27/15 5:35pm
We were absolutely manhandled in the trenches. Very rarely
bluescholar
4/27/15 5:47pm
That UW team significantly underperformed that year. They had a lot of NFL
Mikey
4/27/15 5:51pm
7-5, depending on bowl opponent, 7-6/8-5 at best
Y4LYFE
4/27/15 6:13pm
This is very optimistic. I wish I had it, but I expect no better than 8-4.
Mikey
4/27/15 5:14pm
yes, it is. i think if taysom is healthy for 12 games we have a good shot at
nashty
4/27/15 5:38pm
<< Deleted >>
Still Questing
4/27/15 7:25pm
RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions
Sacto Cougar
4/27/15 6:08pm
I bet we lose to Nebraska, beat BSU, lose the next two, then win out.
jcougars7
4/27/15 6:26pm
14% or .14%?
run26
4/27/15 6:37pm
Your odds for each game yield an expected result of 7.5 wins.
CallingDingo
4/27/15 7:31pm
You have to factor in the odds of Taysom getting hurt again.
pittsburghcoug
4/27/15 8:01pm
At first I thought you meant 14%. Missed the decimal. 0.14% is reasonable.
buckles
4/27/15 10:00pm
I simulated the season 100,000 times in R (statistical software) based on your
XXL
4/27/15 10:27pm
Is that correct? Do you add the probabilities of 11-1 and 10-2 for probability
(Private)
4/28/15 7:47am
Probability of winning exactly 10 games = 6.7%.
Bronco4Prez
4/28/15 8:17am
That's what I was thinking... so he is incorrect in saying less than 7% chance
(Private)
4/28/15 10:10am
That's what's up for interpretation.
Bronco4Prez
4/28/15 1:34pm
so it looks like my percentages are dead on then...what i'm saying is i think
nashty
4/28/15 11:05am
Logic fail: @ Neb - 45% W, @ UCLA - 35% W, vs Cinci - 75% L
ptcougr
4/28/15 3:54am
real life fail...just b/c the % is "x" doesn't mean you can't win or lose the
nashty
4/28/15 11:07am
If you use your probabilities there is a 0.14% chance of 12-0, 1.53% chance of
midwestcoug
4/28/15 7:28am
I'm worried about Wagner.
Real Men Wear Blue
4/28/15 8:14am
RE: BYU has a .14% chance of going 12-0 next season...and my %'s and predictions
CloseToIt
4/28/15 8:49am
I think the obvious is the asterisk - if Taysom is healthy
gww687
4/28/15 9:21am
I don't think we go better than 8-5
Jeffe
4/28/15 10:04am
If BYU has 2 wins in their first four games, I'll be shocked and amazed
Moneycounter
4/28/15 11:20am
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